Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Bookmark this date

Note that Kenneth Deffeyes predicted that Thanksgiving 2005 would mark the date for worldwide peak oil.

I don't doubt that Deffeyes will get arbitrarily close with this date but a few mitigating circumstances can work to prolong the peak. First off, worldwide peak does not behave the same way as a local peak (such as USA lower-48) would. Any local peak can occur with barely a whimper, as the oil suppliers transition to a different source depending on the current supply and demand. However, globally we have no alternatives and the response just about has to involve a ramp-up of extraction rates. This could extend the peak temporally, though not likely indefinitely. More likely, we will see the same effects that we see with UK North Sea oil or New Zealand natural gas or how the FSU plays out.

Secondly, we really have no idea what the hurricane season has wrought. No way that Deffeyes could have predicted the effects over the last few months, with the interesting caveat that it could work in favor of his prediction (a strong dip in production) or that it could lead to future spikes in supply. Either way, Deffeyes will get painted in one of two ways: (1) Wrong or (2) Lucky.

In other words, I see no winners in this race.