Check out the comments as they also contain a high signal to noise ratio of interesting points and mathematical pragmatism, what I call "pragmathematics".
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Use of a gaussian predictor to estimate reserves for USA.
I think DaveR on TOD is Prof. Dave Rutledge from CalTech. Kudos to guys like Rutledge who apply some of their engineering knowledge outside of their field of academic expertise. It really benefits us all.