Norway Cliff ?

A couple of months ago I posted an oil shock model fit to the Norway production curve. Some very recent data coming in from the Petroleum Directorate of Norway reinforces the model's prediction of a rapid and steep decline in production.

OSLO - Norwegian crude production in February was down 18%, or 528,000 barrels a day, compared with February 2004, the Petroleum Directorate said Thursday.

February crude production totaled at 2.46 million b/d, compared with 2.988 million b/d in the same month of 2004.

When overlay plotted on the previous model, it looks grim, even if we account for any calibration offset.

Projections of 2.64 million b/d in the 2007 and 2008 forecasts probably won't deter the slide much.

It forecasts average production in 2006 at 2.43 million b/d rising to 2.64 million b/d in 2007.

Mathiesen said reserves grew by 975 million barrels of oil equivalent last year, with development of discoveries being approved and increased oil recovery projects.

A production average of 2.64 million b/d is also forecast for 2008.