This blog entry contains the oil depletion modeling posts that I have written over the last few months. By and large, I have proceeded from a micro world view to a macro view, while adding interesting details that help me gain insight into how other mathematically-inclined people understand our current Peak Oil predicament.
- A Micro Peak Oil Model
- Part 1 | Part 2 -- Stochastic analysis on the small scale
- A Macro Peak Oil Model
- Part 1 | Part 2 -- Stochastic analysis on the large scale
- Oil Shock Model
- Intro | Continuous -- How disturbances affect depletion
RC Circuit (CAD simulation) -- Analogies to other processes
Code -- Generalized oil shock model program source code
And I have several posts which criticize the traditional Logistic1 curve but use the insight from the macro models as justification.
- Issues with the Traditional Hubbert Model
- Logistic vs Macro | Logistically Impossible | Logistic Curve Derivation | The Gamma Distribution
On more recent posts, I have tried my hand at fitting the shock model to historical stimulus and response data.
- Fits to shock model using discovery data
- Global using ASPO data (follow-up)
USA lower-48
UK North Sea
Former Soviet Union
- Supporting information
- Ramp-up data
1Wherever I say logistics, I mean logistic; probably due to too many years dealing with loggies at work. :)