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ASTM Standard 2008 : Ptroleum Products & Lubricants I Vol 05.01 : D 56 - D 3348 :Rp. 5,025,000
ASTM Standard 2008 : Ptroleum Products & Lubricants II Vol 05.02 : D 3427 - D 5763 :Rp. 4,470,000
ASTM Standard 2008 : Ptroleum Products & Lubricants III Vol 05.01 : D 5769 - D 6729 :Rp. 4,635,000
ASTM Standard 2008 : Ptroleum Products & Lubricants IV Vol 05.01 : D 6730 - Latest :Rp. 4,950,000
ASTM Standard 2008 : Combustion Characterization, Manucafturing Carbon & Grap :Rp. 2,415,000
ASTM Standard 2008 : Gasous Fuels : Coal and Coke :Rp. 2,670,000
ASTM Standard 2008 Vol 11.01 : Water I , Water II Set 2 Volume :Rp. 7,215,000
ASTM Manual 44 : Guide to ASTM Test Methods for the Analysis of Petroleum Product & Lub 2ed :Rp. 2,665,000
Distillation & Vapor Pressure Measurement and Petroleum Products :Rp. 2,655,000
ASTM Manual 5 : Aviation Fuel Quality Control Procedures 3rd :Rp. 825,000
ASTM Manual 50 : Characterization & Properties of Petroleum Fractions :Rp. 2,955,000
ASTM Manual 37 : Fuel and Lub Handbook : technol,prperties & pereformance , testing :Rp. 5,375,000
ASTM Manual 47 : Fuel and Fuel System Microbiology :Rp. 1,470,000
Manual 1 : Significance of Tes for Petroleum Products 7th :Rp. 1,470,000
ASTM STP 1468 : element analysis of fuels & lub ( recent advanced and future prospects ) :Rp. 1,350,000
ASTM Adjunct D 1250 Tempera and Pressure Volume Correcti factors for Generalized Crude,Oils,Ref..CD Room Version :Rp. 6,750,000
ASTM D 1250 Adjunt: petroleum measurement TABLES ( Com set Vol I - XI-XII ) set 12 Volume , 11 Buku :Rp. 9,825,000
ASTM Fire Standards & Relate Technical Materials 7th set 2 Vol :Rp. 5,775,000
ASTM Adjun D 130 : copper STRIp Corrosion Standard for petroleum :Rp. 3,210,000
ASTM DS 51 E ASTM Computer Program for Chem.. Therm..s and Energy Release Evalua - CHETAH CDROOM Version :Rp. 13,425,000
Institute of Petroleum (IP) : Standrad mthods for analysis & tesing of Petroleum and relat Prod Set 2 Vol + CDROOM.. :Rp. 9,995,000
Comprehensive Analitical Chemistry : Advanced in Flow Injection Analysis & Related Techniques :Rp. 4,350,000
Comprehensive Analytical Chemistry : Modern Instrumental Analysis :Rp. 6,198,000
Analytical Methods Validation & Instrument Performance Verification :Rp. 1,475,000
Environmental Instrumentation & Analysis Handbook :Rp. 2,575,000
Handbook of Analytical Instruments :Rp. 1,498,000
Process Industrial Instrument & Controls Handbook :Rp. 2,370,000
Instrumentation Reference Book 3ed :Rp. 2,450,000
Instrumentation,Systems Control & MEMS ( Mechanical Engineers Handbook Vol .2 ) :Rp. 2,498,000
Pressure Vessel and Stachs ( Field Repair Manual ) :Rp. 1,598,000
Pressure Vessel design ( the direct route ) :Rp. 3,935,000
Pressure Vessel Design Manual :Rp. 2,525,000
Pressure Equipment technology ( theory & practce ) :Rp. 2,898,000
Pressure Relief Devices ( ASME and API Code Simplified ) :Rp. 2,498,000
Guidebook for the Design of ASME Sec VIII : Pressure Vessels 3rd :Rp. 1,598,000
Companion Guide Pressure Vessel Code set 3 Volume :Rp. 13,500,000
Valve Handbook :Rp. 1,950,000
Valve Selection Handbook :Rp. 1,475,000
Boiler Operation Engineering ( Question and Answer) :Rp. 647,500
Boiler Operations Guide 4ed :Rp. 1,080,000
Power Boiler Design, Inspection and Repair ASME Code Simplified :Rp. 1,350,000
Water Treatment Essential for Boiler Plant Operation :Rp. 848,000
Boiler Operator's handbook :Rp. 1,475,000
Heting Boiler Operator's Manual ( Maintenance,Operation and Repair ) :Rp. 1,050,000
The ASME Code Simplified ; Power Boilers :Rp. 975,000
Practical Guide to Industrial Boiler Systems :Rp. 2,760,000
Industrial Boiler and Heat Recovery Steam Generators : design , application & calculations :Rp. 3,898,000
Heat Transfer Calculations :Rp. 1,498,000
Process heat transfer ( principles & applications ) :Rp. 1,898,000
Heat transfer Handbook + CD ROOM :Rp. 3,198,000
Mass Transfer From Fundamental to Modern Industrial Application :Rp. 1,950,000
The Nalco Guide to Cooling Water Systems Failure Analysis :Rp. 1,075,000
Incompressible Flow :Rp. 2,350,000
Fluid Dynamic( theoritical and Computational Approach ) :Rp. 1,598,000
Computational Fluid Dynamics :Rp. 4,498,000
Thermal Fluid Science ( an Intergrated Approach ) :Rp. 2,080,000
Advanced transport Phenomena ( Fluid mechanics & Convective transport Processes ) :Rp. 2,245,000
Advanced Engineering Thermodynamics :Rp. 2,198,000
Thermodynamic ( Concepts & Application ) + CD ROOM :Rp. 1,980,000

New Trade Regulation proposals and Oil

New Trade Regulation proposals and Oil 2010/02/10

On Jan 21, the US President Barack Obama announced a series of measures to reduce risk in the financial sector. The proposals intend to tighten the regulatory mechanism and prevent a second- or like- sub-prime mortgage crisis. That is, the banks will not be able to put the whole economy at risk-again.

"If these folks want a fight, it's a fight I'm ready to have" said Obama. The folks are the financial institutions like the banking sector which would have limits on trading activities. Financial institution backed by the government will be prevented from taking huge risks. The move would impact Wall Street's trade directly.

The proposals have been dubbed as 'the Volcker Rule' after the former Federal Reserve Chairman, Paul A. Volcker, who advocated strong financial reform with more regulatory control. The regulations aim to correct the soaring profits and obscene bonuses of certain firms. "We should no longer allow banks to stray too far from their central mission of serving their customers," were the words of The US President.

Coming on heels of his party's election loss in Massachusetts, the President has used a populist stance. His move looks like an attempt to stop the slide in his popularity rating. A smart move nevertheless, as it's no secret that banks are hated by many people, being held responsible for the economic crisis. In addition, the bailouts of the banks using the taxpayer's money created a huge public outcry. Since then there has been pressure from various quarters to regulate the financial system. The first proposal was thus put forward by President Obama in June 2009. Then on Dec 11, 2009 the House approved the Democratic plan to tighten federal regulations, especially of the Wall Street.

Some proposal that preceded the Volcker rule:

New regulator, tentatively called Consumer Financial Protection Agency would oversee credit cards, mortgages and consumer debt. Thus the role of banks become limited

New rules for transaction to prevent another economic slowdown

Measures to reduce threat of bankrupt companies ruining the economy

The Federal Reserve gets a greater role to play in overseeing large financial institutions

Volcker rule in detail:

These proposals would limit banks and Wall Street firms which own banks from owning, investing in, sponsoring or advising any hedge funds or private equity funds. As sharp move as the US banks have a hefty nine percent share in private equity capital.

The regulations will separate commercial banks from investment banks. Banks trade for profit backed by the deposit insurance, safeguards and guarantees bestowed on them by the government. Obama plans to limit these risks, as they are subsidized by the taxpayer who would suffer if things go wrong.

The president said that he cannot accept a system where shareholders make money on the operations 'if the bank wins but taxpayers foot the bill if the bank loses'. Thus only commercial banks that stay away from proprietary trading on their own accounts would benefit from the Federal Reserve's discount window. (The federal discount window or Fed's use of credit, in short, is a government loan facility which helps the banks to borrow reserves at a discount rate. It helps alleviate the liquidity problems of the banks).

In other words, banks can either engage in proprietary trading or resort to being a traditional bank -not both. Banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley would be affected as they will have to forgo their status as commercial banks if they want to continue in proprietary trading. Also, both the banks will have to leave from the private equity businesses. (However, the banks can still return their deposit base-which is small- and withdraw from the federal discount window).

Elsewhere, China too is tightening its monetary policy. Some of its banks have been asked to halt lending for some time. This comes in the backdrop of heavy lending in the first two weeks of the year. Together with Volcker rule and the Chinese move, the stock markets around the world fell with the Wall Street reeling under the worse decline in a day in three months. The banking sector has reacted sharply which found resonance in the stock market and dollar-both fell.

Crude oil and gold prices too fell soon after the Volcker rule announcement. This was based on investor fear that banks won't be able to trade in crude futures on their own accounts.

Ramifications of the Volcker proposals on oil:

Banks have in recent years, invested heavily in risky ventures, which, if one recalls, led to the financial crisis. Major Banks in the US have pumped in billions of dollars speculating on oil and gas contracts. The latest proposal will make it difficult and expensive for the commercial banks to buy gas and oil contracts.

Oil prices are driven by speculation, which will take a back seat with banks absent from the scene. Some analysts like hedge fund manager Mike Masters are of the view that the limited role of commercial banks will result in less volatility in the energy market.

The 'Super Contango' will come to play its part. The oil stored will be offloaded into the market, resulting in more oil availability. (For more details on Contango: http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-contango-effects-on-oil-prices.php)

According to a report of the government, the United States was using less energy than 2009. Though demand is increasing from growing economies in Asia, they may not be able to offset for the lesser demand in the US. Already the effects are to be seen: On Jan 21, IEA said that the country's gasoline supply increased by 3.9 mbd the previous week in the wake of less demand. The commodity fell to a four-week low after the weekly EIA report revealed that refineries have slashed their operating rates as fuel demand declines. In fact they have also slowed down their operations. Still, due to oil contango there will be oil in the market.

The Volcker rule is yet to be passed by the senate; hence it's still early to predict the actual trajectory of the oil prices. Indeed, some of the proposals may not even see the light of the day. Still, taken together, the oil prices may not increase to the record levels seen earlier this year. On the face of it, this is good for the consumer who will have to spend less on transportation. However, the oil industry would have to battle the underinvestment. Also, if the banks were to withdraw the investments made, the whole industry would be affected in the long term.

Oil War in the Falkland Islands

Oil War in the Falkland Islands 2010/02/18

This could be the script of any Hollywood blockbuster: The recent spat between Argentina and the UK over oil in the Falkland Islands. For, there is a conflict, two or more protagonists, oil, money and drama.

The diplomatic battle started hogging the headlines as Argentina began criticizing Britain for its plan to drill for oil and gas in the waters north of the Falkland Islands. The Argentine foreign ministry in a statement said the government "firmly rejects plans of the United Kingdom to authorise operations of exploration and extraction of hydrocarbons in the area of the Argentine continental shelf under illegitimate British occupation".

The Falkland Islands also known Islas Malvinas comprise about 340 islands. The majority of the population is British descent. The islands have been under British control since the year 1833. In 1982, a brief war called the Falklands war started when Argentina's military junta invaded the Falkland Islands, South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands. The war which started on April 2, ended on June 14 after Argentina surrendered to Britain. Though the Falkland Islands is under British rule, Argentina still claims the islands, including them in the Argentine constitution.

For now, Argentina says that it would blacklist the oil exploration companies working in the region. "It's not accidental that the oil companies involved are British, that is to say, the only ones that can really believe the chimera that the UK is peddling about the alleged legality of these commercial operations", said official Argentine sources.

On the other side, British reaction has been subdued. The Financial times reported a UK diplomat as saying that the UK Prime Minster, Gordon Brown was anxious to "avoid military confrontation". A spokesperson for the UK embassy in Argentina said "We have no doubt about our sovereignty over the Falklands Islands and the surrounding maritime area." And that "The Falkland Islands government is entitled to develop a hydrocarbons industry in its waters and there is a long-standing policy to support this".

Argentina says that Britain continued to ignore the UN resolution to renew dialogue on the sovereignty of the South Atlantic islands. In 1995, both the countries signed a joint declaration to cooperate on off shore oil explorations around the Falkland Islands. In 2007, Argentina voided the 1995 oil and gas exploration declaration with the UK, which was on suspension for five years. Meanwhile, the UK wants to extend its rights to areas surrounding the islands.

Why the waters around Falkland Islands are important?

The reason is simple to state: The areas around Falkland Islands are said to have one of the world's largest reserves of oil, mainly in the north basin. There are reserves in the South and East of Falkland islands as well. The British Geological Survey estimates the oil at about 60 billion barrels. The hydrocarbons in the basins were discovered in 1998 itself by companies like Shell and Amanda Hess. But soon after oil prices fell-$12-15 per barrel- and with it ended the efforts to drill for oil.

But now that technology, skill set and oil prices have improved, the companies are able to contract rigs for the exploration with improved resources. Ben Romney, a Desire Petroleum spokesman said, "With the rise in oil prices and the worldwide search for new oil and gas services, it has now become more than commercially viable for this work to begin". The oil well costs about $25million-$30million in the north basin where drilling depth reach 500m. It would cost $30million-$35million in the south basin as the depths are higher at 3,000m.

The major players:

Six companies hold licence for oil exploration in the region- Desire, Falkland Oil & Gas, Rockhopper, Borders & Southern, Argos Resources and Arcadia (the last two are private companies)

Desire Petroleum PLC (LSE: DES): It has licence in the north basin. The company expects to recover oil worth about 3 billion boe in four wells. Its rig, Ocean Guardian is expected to arrive in Falkland Islands this week, to drill 100 miles offshore.

Rockhopper (LSE: RKH): Has licence in north basin. Expecting oil worth 4.3 billion boe.

Borders & Southern (LSE: BOR): Licence is in south basin. Not ready to speculate on the amount of oil, yet.

Falklands Oil & Gas (LSE: FOGL): associated with BHP Billiton. Licence for drilling in east and south basin. Estimates the oil to be about 60 billion boe

Last June, Phyl Rendell, Falkland Islands Director of Minerals and Agriculture had this to say about the South American influence, "Their political stance and restrictions on our movements are harmful to our economic development. And we are striving to develop our economy with that threat over us".

Indeed, the potential benefits of oil are huge:

The government of Falkland Islands will benefit from the fees, rentals and taxes. The corporation tax has been set at 26% on profit with 9% royalty on production. This makes the Falkland Islands a profitable place to drill

It will benefit the Falkland Islands economy as the oil fields would be one of the largest fields in the world. There would be more investments, flights, international trade, tourism and job creation

Though oil, if found, would take time to reach the market, once there, it would keep balance the oil prices. In turn, balanced (not too high or low) oil prices will help the world economy as a whole.

It would be good news for the oil industry. Investor confidence would get a fillip and a possible domino effect of more investments for oil exploration would follow

The oil in the region can, in a way, erode the monopoly of OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) over world's oil reserves

Other obstacles:

Considering the fragile eco-system of the region and with the exploration set to begin in full swing, it might be a challenge for the Falkland Islands government to protect the eco-system

The exploration for oil in the area is a huge risk. In case no oil is found, the loss would count to billions of dollar

In later developments, the diplomatic salvo between the countries reached a crescendo with Argentina preventing a ship from loading a cargo of pipelines-said to be for oil exploration. The group that owns the cargo, Techint has said that the pipes were heading towards the Mediterranean ports. To which the Argentine foreign ministry stated: "There is evidence that the ship was being used to supply material linked with the oil industry activities that are being illegally promoted by Britain in the Malvinas (Falkland Islands)".

A bull-blown conflict may not yet be a possibility as Britain's Foreign Secretary, David Miliband expressed confidence in dialogue. "I think the Argentinean government has got many more areas to co-operate with the UK than to disagree about," he said. Not to forget, the UK military has base near Port Stanley so security may not be a problem for the drilling companies.

The co-operation between the countries will help in the smooth execution of the exploration process. The demand for oil is growing; the IEA has predicted oil demand to grow by 120,000 barrels per day in 2010. So, every potential field has to be tapped wherever possible-except, if possible, in environmentally sensitive spots. Renewable energy sources are still not in a position to compete against oil, and so oil exploration ought to be encouraged. Investments have started pouring into oil exploration and it has to keep going, starting with the Falkland Islands.

Niger, Nigeria and the oil price rise

Niger, Nigeria and the oil price rise 2010/02/24

What's in a name? Niger or Nigeria will be in a better position to answer this question. If not anything the confusion in the name pushed oil prices to $80 a barrel last week. How? There was a coup in Niger and traders hustled to buy oil, mistaking Niger for oil rich Nigeria.

Mistaken identity

On February 18, a coup took place in the West African country, Niger. Armed soldiers stormed the presidential palace in Niamey, the capital of the country and kidnapped the President of the country Mamadou Tandja. The coup was orchestrated by a soldier named Colonel Adamou Haroun. He was aided by another Colonel Djibril Hamidou. This is the third coup in the country since the 90's.

In dramatic style, the soldiers declared on TV, the suspension of the constitution and all the institutes associated with it. Colonel Goukoye Abdul Karimou, read a statement on behalf of a group called Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy (CSRD). In the statement he appealed to everyone to have faith in the group's ideas which "could turn Niger into an example of democracy and of good governance".

The coup wasn't entirely unexpected. President Tandja came to power after the election in 1999. He was supposed to step down on Dec 22. However, he chose instead to change the country's constitution last year to stay on. The move enabled him to stand for a third time in office, and with more powers without election.

The fifteen nation West African regional bloc, ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) reacted by suspending Niger. The US terminated non-humanitarian aids and cut off trade benefits. The US state department spokesman Philip Crowley said "President Tandja has been trying to extend his mandate in office. And obviously, that may well have been, you know, an act on his behalf that precipitated this act today". African Union chief Jean Ping condemned the military coup in Niger and said he was following developments "with concern".

The reaction from Nigeria, coincidence or not, does take pains to differentiate between the countries. According to a statement by Senior Special Assistant to the Acting President on Media and Publicity, Mr Ima Niboro, the acting President of Nigeria Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan has expressed deep concern over reports of shooting in Niger's capital.

Meanwhile, Colonel Djibrilla Hima one of the leaders of the coup said that their group would hold election too. The plan, he said, is to hold elections once the situation has stabilized.

Oil in Niger

Niger has in recent years attracted billions of dollars as investment in oil.

Exploration in Niger began in the 1950s. Drilling was done in the 60's by Petropar in Tamesna-Talak and Djado blocks. But the two main blocks that emerged were Djado Basin and the Agadem Basin

In the year 1992, the Djado permit was given to Hunt oil. In 1997 the Tenere permit was given to TG World Energy Inc.

In 2004 the Niger government approved the joint venture arrangement between CNPC International Tenere Limited (CNPCIT) and TG World Petroleum Limited (subsidiary of TG World).

In 2005, Petronas Carigali Niger Exploration & Production Ltd. (PCNEPL), announced that it had found hydrocarbons in the Agadem Block

Esso and Petronas had sole rights to the Agadem block. But in 2008, the rights were transferred to CNPC for USD$5 Billion investment. The oil reserves in the block are estimated at 325 million barrels. The company is also building a 20,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Zinder.

Other oil companies in the region are Shell, ExxonMobil and Chevron

Thus, though Niger isn't a major player in the oil business, the markets reached on hearing news of the coup. Tom Bentz, analyst at BNP Paribas Commodities said, "Markets took off at around the same time a Reuters story came out about gunfire erupting in the Niger capital in an apparent coup bid, mistaken by many as being Nigeria".

To be fair, other factors too contributed for the increase in oil prices-tension of Iran's nuclear program, weaker dollar and the report of EIA on heating oil supply falling by 1.4 million barrels. However, among the factors, the name confusion was the most important reason for the immediate oil price rise.

Yet, the fact remains that Niger is yet to produce oil for the world market.

Niger facts
Capital	Niamey
Neighbours	Nigeria, Benin, Burkino Faso, Mali, Algeria, Libya and Chad
Population	15.3 million
Currency	West African CFA franc
Official language	French. The country got independence from France in 1960
Main religion	Islam
Leading producer of Uranium	more than 8 percent of world's Uranium.

Petrobras discovers oil again

The Barracuda concession is about 100 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro

Petrobras discovers oil again 2010/03/03

There has been a slew of oil discoveries around the Brazilian coast in recent times. Could they make a difference to the oil thirsty world of ours? Let's see:

Petrobras, the state controlled Brazilian energy firm, has found two accumulations of oil in the Campos basin. The recoverable reserves of the accumulations have been put at 65 million barrels. The discoveries were made after drilling in the exploratory well, 6-BR-63A-RJS in the Barracuda concession area. The well is about 100 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro.

You may ask why they are termed 'two separate finds' when they are located in the same well? That's because the accumulations have been found in two regions of the well-one in the subsalt layer and the other in the post-salt layer. And, both the reservoirs are separated by miles.
The company had also announced two new discoveries in block 15/06 in the Angolan waters early this February. All these discoveries strengthen the hand of the deepwater oil exploration and production company- Petrobras. According to a survey by Ernst and Young, Petrobras ranks eighth in the list of biggest global companies in terms of market value. The company is also the largest in Latin America-by revenue and market capitalization. With the news of the discoveries the shares of the company rose to a two month high.

The bigger of the two finds, 40 million barrels, lies below the first find in the subsalt layer at a depth of 4,340 metres below the ocean floor. These are pre-salt carbonic reservoirs. The volume of recoverable oil from the post-salt find has been put at 25 million barrels. Tests carried out point towards light oil (280 API) with good productivity in the reservoirs.

Petrobras has about forty fields in the Campos region. The region is very rich in oil contributing to about ninety percent of Brazil's crude production. In recent years, Petrobras has made series of oil discoveries in the Campos and Santos basin.
The discoveries were made in an attempt to cut production cost by exploring for oil in adjacent areas of previous oil finds. Petrobras already has production, storage and offloading infrastructure to extract oil in the Campos basin. So, the company may extract the oil interconnecting well 6-BR-63A-RJS to the already installed marine Platform P-43.

And, the discoveries will have to be to be submitted to the National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuel Agency (ANP) for an assessment plan immediately.
In addition, this month the US's Export-Import Bank made a 'preliminary commitment' to lend about $2 billion dollars to Petrobras. This loan is for exploration of offshore oil fields in Tupi oil fields, Santos basin. The Tupi fields are said to hold about 5-8 bn barrels of recoverable oil. Thus, Brazil is making its presence felt in the oil market.

Significance

The discoveries could increase the oil production of Brazil-and Petrobras-by almost six fold in a decade's time. As a result, the country could become one of the major producers of oil in the world.

Extracting this oil may take time. In fact, the company will have to overcome the technical and logistical challenges of bypassing the miles of sand to reach the oil accumulations.

When oil extraction starts in the wells, it could make Brazil a leading exporter of oil. Brazil is not a member of OPEC and hence these finds are better for oil prices.

One reason for the US to assist Brazil in oil exploration is the possibility of new oil finds. Together all the discoveries could make Brazil take the place of Venezuela, as a new oil supplier/partner of the US.

The world consumes 30 billion barrels of oil every year. According to IEA this year's global oil demand is estimated at 86.5 mb/d. Hence these discoveries will not drastically, in the near future, change the oil scenario of the world. Still, these are signification finds as something is better than nothing.

Multiple reasons behind the oil price rise

Multiple reasons behind the oil price rise , 2010/03/11

In the U.S. there is an over-supply of crude oil in the market, at present. Not that it definitely should but, obviously, the price of oil should slide, right? Well, last week the oil prices closed at $81.79 a barrel. There reason? There isn't one but many. Before that let us look at some data:
First, the industry report from the American Petroleum Institute. API report showed:

• More than expected crude inventories due to more imports. An increase of 2.7 million barrels.
• Gasoline inventories increased by 909,000 barrels
• Distillates dropped by 4.1 million barrels

Following is the data from Energy Information Administration (EIA):

• Increased crude oil stockpiles on the back of strong imports. The stockpiles increased to 341.6 million barrels, a climb by almost 4.1 million bbl (for week ended February 26). The expected rise was about 1.3 million barrels only. So, this is about three times the estimated increase-a surprise.
• Distillate fuel inventories fell 900,000 bbl to 151.8 million bbl due to high demand.
• Gasoline inventories rose by 700,000 bbl to 231.9 million bbl instead of the expected 300,000 bbl.
Clearly, there is more crude oil in the market. According to analyst from Raymond James & Associates Inc, total petroleum storage is now at 765.3 million bbl or 16 million bbl above the storage levels, same time last year. Oil supplies in the U.S. West Coast increased, with the stockpiles there jumping by 2.31 million barrels contributing to the overall increase in oil -341.6 million bbl. Still, oil managed to override this supply excess and touch the $80 a barrel mark.

The reasons for the oil price rise:

While there are many reasons for the increase, some significant ones are:

According to the U.S. Energy department, refinery utilization in the U.S. rose to 81.9%, an increase by 0.7% for the week ending February 26. The refinery operating rates were the highest since October. For its part, the high refinery cost has compensated for any possible decrease in the price of oil. In addition, the US fuel demand was at 19.3 million barrels for the last four weeks an increase of 3% from last year-according to the department. Amid this, there were reports of rebel groups attacking oil installations in Nigeria. As Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer, investors feared for the oil exports from the region. The reports of the attacks are yet to be confirmed, but, still, helped increase the oil prices. U.S. jobs report showed lower than expected unemployment figures. The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics department showed unemployment rate unchanged from the January rate of 9.7%. Investors took this as a sign of economic revival with the U.S. President Obama describing the jobs report as "better than expected". As soon as the Labor department came up with the news, dollar fell increasing the oil prices. And how did that happen?

• Higher oil price increases the export bill leading to trade deficits and weak dollar
• Dollar-denominated commodities become cheaper with a weak dollar, in turn increasing the price of oil.
Moving on, there were optimistic signs on the manufacturing font in the U.S. The U.S. Commerce department announced that factory orders rose 1.7% in January mainly due to increased aircraft orders. There was 2.6% increase in durable goods orders. Confidence of the businesses showed as the Inventories continued to increase.
In addition, there emerged positive signs from the world's second biggest oil consumer, China. Last Friday, the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao set an economic target of eight percent for this year. Fair enough since a good economy means better fuel demand.


Other reasons

• Heating oil demand from the Northern hemisphere
• Signs from the Middle-East: Seizure of a Saudi Arabian oil tanker by pirates in the Gulf of Aden too worried the investors. As did the Iraqi parliamentary election due March 7.
• Greece's austerity measures to rein in the debt problem

Oil prices in the coming weeks:

So, will oil manage to climb up, even further? Well, major groups like IEA and EIA have projected strong demand for oil in the near future. According to Barclays oil prices were likely to rise to $80-$90 range. Quoting data from Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI), which said that the Asian demand for oil was increasing by more than 2 million barrels per day, Barclays analysts Paul Horsnell said, "If Asian demand can grow at such rapid rates when prices are in the $70 to $80 range, then prices cannot stay in that range for much longer".

In China, for a change, the oil stocks are higher than the demand. So, China's largest producer, supplier and refiner of oil, Sinopec is said to be introducing a subsidy of 130 yuan or $19 per ton, in an effort to increase the export of oil. The subsidy is expected to be in place till the demand and supply are balanced.

And, OPEC is meeting on March 17. Analysts predict that there would be no changes in the output quotas. Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said "Despite the fact the global economy is gradually recovering, demand has not increased significantly enough to make us reconsider our production ceiling".

Correctly forecasting the price of oil is a science in itself. The situation in the Middle-East should be kept in mind. So, read the reasons, analyse the pointers and make your own judgment before investing.

The Oil Scene in New Zealand

The Oil Scene in New Zealand2010/03/17

Heard about Zealandia, the eighth continent of the world? Zealandia is said to be a submerged or micro continent that sank millions of years ago. Most of this submerged continent is said to be in the Pacific Ocean. Zealandia is rich in oil and could be the answer for unlocking the oil potential of New Zealand, the largest country in the continent.

In the sixties, many companies had tried to find oil in New Zealand. But by the eighties, most of them had to retire from the scene without finding any oil. Now with the advancement in technology, companies hope to change their record. Why not? Analysts are of the view that New Zealand is at the same stage that Norway was in the Pre-North sea era. Further, some say that the oil could be more than Britain's North Sea boom. Yes, the country's oil sector is at crossroads.

To put in some economic perspective; according to the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2009 Oil contributed to almost 37 % of TPES (Total Primary Energy Supply). Thus, oil is the largest source of energy in New Zealand. At present, the petroleum sector contributes around $3 billion per annum as export revenue. The government is planning to increase this to $30 billion per annum by 2025 by exploring for oil in unexplored basins.

So brace yourself; you are going to hear a lot more about Zealandia soon. And, promotions are in full swing to attract investment in oil and gas exploration in the deepwater basins. The New Zealand government even initiated a seismic-acquisition program costing USD 20 million on off shore sedimentary basins. The results of the study were shared with the oil operators for free.

The oil scene in New Zealand

For decades oil exploration in New Zealand was off the radar. There was the Maui gas and oil field in the Tasman Sea, the largest oil field in New Zealand. This oil field has been in action for more than twenty five years, contributing to more than three-quarters of the hydro-carbons produced. But the reserves have since dwindled, so exploration for oil has begun in earnest.

According to the country's Ministry of Economic Development's 2009 Energy Data File, the spending on oil exploration was the highest in a decade. The expenditure in petroleum exploration increased to $314 million from $136 million in 2007.

Indeed, the total oil production was at the highest for any calendar year at 21 million barrels or 128 PJ. This is up by about 45% from the 2007 levels. The country's mean production rate was 58,400 barrels per day for 2008, an increase from 40, 750 barrels per day in 2007. The two oil fields of Pohokura and Tui contributed to about 86% of the production.

Explorations

In recent times, the New Zealand Ministry of Economic Development's Crown Minerals Group has been promoting bids for the Reinga Basin and Northland Basins for companies in North America, Australia, Europe and Asia.

Nine exploration permits were given to exporters for exploration in Offshore Taranaki Basin in 2008. As a result, 20 exploration wells are proposed to be drilled over the next five years, targeting both shallow oil and deep gas. Last year, it was confirmed that the Maari and Manaia oil fields in Taranaki basin has about 100 million barrels of recoverable oil.

Exploration are on in two offshore areas, Raukumara (East Cape) and Northland basins, the combined area of the two blocks being over 66,000 square kilometres. Seismic surveys in Raukumara basin have already identified many areas with high Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators (DHI's). The satellite radar imaging also showed the presence of significant hydrocarbon in the basin. In addition, seismic interpretations in the Northland basins show many structural and stratigraphic traps. The satellite radar imaging has identified many potential offshore oil seeps, that is, presence of hydrocarbons in the basin. The Northland basin covers 120,000 square kilometres.

Last year, a semi-sub offshore oil rig called Kan Tan IV was commissioned to explore in Taranaki. Kan Tan IV will start a multi-drilling programme for oil near the Tui fields and wells in Northland and Canterbury Basins. The rig, after some delay in the Bass Strait, is on Taranaki basin preparing to drill in the Hoki-1 exploration well. Hoki-1 has an estimated target of 250 million barrels of recoverable oil. After Hoki-1 Kan Tan IV will start a multi-drilling programme for oil near the Tui feilds and wells in Northland and Canterbury Basins.

Early this year, the Government opened the bidding for exploring in six new blocks across the Reinga basin. The Reinga basin covers area of more than 150, 000 km2. This basin is nearer to the Northland basin and geologically contiguous with the Taranaki basin. Surveys and seismic data from the place suggest the presence of oil seeps in many areas as well.

"This is an exciting opportunity for New Zealand and explorers alike. It is one of the most prospective frontier basins in the New Zealand region with all the elements required for an active petroleum system present over a large area," said Energy and Resources Minister Gerry Brownlee.

Another oil prospect, Barque, was initially expected to contain 800 million barrels of light oil and five trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That is, oil equal to all the previous finds in the country. But after detailed evaluation, the recoverable oil from the well was cut down. Tap Oil, the operator of the Barque well, put the estimates at 600 billion cubic feet (BCF) of dry sales gas and 58 million barrels (mmbbls) of light oil/condensate.

In Canterbury Basin, explorers Origin Energy and Anadarko are looking for a rig to drill for oil. The exploration well is expected to be in place by next year. After evaluation, the oil prospects from the basin have been put at 500 million barrels.

Some of the companies operating in New Zealand are Horizon Oil, OMV Cue Energy, Shell, BP, Mobil Exxon, OMV, Todd corporation, Greymouth petroleum, Australian Worldwide Exploration, Tap oil, AWE New Zealand Pty Ltd, Beach Petroleum (NZ) Pty Ltd and Anzon New Zealand Ltd.

The Sydney based company AWE Ltd is said to be waiting for environmental appeal over a well, Tuatara-1 off D'Urville Island. The Tuatara-1 well is estimated to have oil potential of about 100 million barrel.

What we are seeing now in New Zealand are oil prospects. The full potential of the basins are still to be ascertained-could be from anywhere between 600-1200 million barrels. Not small numbers, mind you. The oil discovery is expected to be made in four of five years time. So any oil or gas if found, would take at least a decade to reach the market.

Still, it's true that the world is using more barrels of oil than is being discovered. In the longer term, competition for the falling oil supply would be intense. And Zealandia is one place to watch out for.